If you like your horse racing stats, then here at CheltenhamBettingSites we’ve got you covered with the key 2025 Cheltenham Festival trends for day 1 that will help you put history on your side. Our experts construct the best profiles based on past winners of each of the seven races on Champion Hurdle day.
How To Use The Cheltenham Festival Trends
Horse racing trends are certainly not the holy grail to finding every winner at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, but they can help narrow down your search – especially in the big handicaps.
By looking at past Cheltenham winners, trends and patterns emerge from recent years. These suggest that if something has happened a lot of times in a horse race, there’s a strong chance that history will repeat itself.
These Cheltenham Festival trends come in all shapes and sizes, so you must be selective too. Including the best ages, weight, trainers and recent form – to name just a handful.
However, by applying them to the final Cheltenham horses for each race will allow you to quickly put a line through some that fall down on the main Cheltenham Festival trends – and add those that tick more boxes to your best bets shortlists.
For example – in the opening day feature race – the Champion Hurdle – a massive 86% of the last 14 winners (12) came into the race unbeaten that season. While 30 of the last 35 winners (86% again) also won their most recent race.
These are two big trends you should know about Willie Mullins star mare Lossiemouth. Before taking a punt on her on Cheltenham betting sites, she must defy the following stats if she heads to the Champion Hurdle over the Mares’ Hurdle on day one.
As she was beaten into second in the Christmas Hurdle back in December and more recently fell in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Let’s get going with our Cheltenham Festival trends for day 1
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: Slade Steel
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
- 22 of the last 30 winners raced in the last 45 days
- The Irish have won 19 of the last 33
- 24 of the last 28 won their last race
- 14 of the last 21 winners ran in at least 4 hurdles races
- 13 of the last 15 winners hailed from the top 4 in the market
- 12 of the last 13 winners won a graded Novice Hurdle
- 5 & 6 year-olds have done best – winning 18 of the last 20
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times (5 of the last 12 years)
- 8 of the last 12 winners – (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained
- 27 of the last 30 winners ran that same calendar year
- 6 of the last 11 winners had been rated 153 or more
- Only 2 of the last 22 winners aged 7 or older
- Only 2 outright winning favourites in the last 20 years
- Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten
- 11 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price
- 11 of the last 16 winners were previous bumper winners
- Only 4 of the last 22 winners were unbeaten
Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase Trends
2024 Winner: GAELIC WARRIOR (2/1 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
- 15 of the last 19 winners won at least twice over fences in the past
- 16 of the last 18 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 15 of the last 20 winners won (or been placed) at Cheltenham in the past
- 19 of the last 25 winners won a Grade 1 or 2 chase previously
- 14 of the last 15 winners won their last race (18 of the last 23)
- 23 of the last 25 winners 9/1 or shorter
- 16 of the last 22 winners raced 3 or 4 times over fences
- 15 of the last 21 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival
- 9 of the last 13 winners unbeaten over fences
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 10 runnings
- 10 of the last 13 winners trained by either Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (4)
- 35 of the last 38 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
- 31 of the last 34 winners priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- Only 2 winners won with headgear since 2000
- 5 year-olds are 0-16 since 2007
- 10 of the last 13 favourites won
Ultima Handicap Chase Trends
2024 Winner: CHIANTI CLASSICO
Trainer – Kim Bailey
Jockey – David Bass
- 10 of the last 17 rated between 142-146 (8 between 142-145)
- 19 of the last 25 winners rated 143 or less
- 17 of the last 24 top 4 in the betting
- 20 of the last 24 returned 11/1 or shorter
- 18 of the last 24 novices or second season chasers
- Horses rated 140+ won 16 of the last 24 runnings
- 9 of the last 22 won their last race
- Horses that ran well in the race before have a good record
- 10 of the last 13 winners wore headgear
- 10 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
- Jonjo O’Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe have good records
- All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+
- 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season
- 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
- Northern-based runners have done well
- Horses carrying 11st 4lb or more in weight don’t fare well – 12 of the last 20 carried 10st 12lb or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11st 12lb & the 2019 winner won with 11st 8lb and Chianti Classico in 2024 carried 11st 4lb)
- Horses aged 11 or older only 3 from 58 to get placed
- Just 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
- The Irish have a bad record – 2 of the last 56 runnings (since 1967)
- Irish-trained runners are 0-46 in the last 18 runnings
- Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race
- Be cautious of Paul Nicholls runners– he’s currently 0 from 25
Mares’ Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
- Irish-trained mares (14 of last 17)
- Favourites or 2nd favs won 13 of the last 17 runnings
- Novices have a good record
- 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2
- 10 of the last 17 favourites (but only 2 in last 10)
- 13 of the last 17 winners were aged between 5-7 years-old
- 15 of the last 17 winners won over at least 2m4f
- Trainer Willie Mullins 10 of the last 17 winners
- 6 of the last 13 winners had won over 2m6f+
- Horses that began their careers in bumpers have good records
- Respect French-bred mares – won 10 times
- 13 of the last 17 winners priced 6/1 or shorter
- Benie De Deaux the only ex-flat horse to win the race
- Only 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)
- 14 of the last 17 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the male
- British-bred mares are currently 3-90
- Only one winner from last 33 runners to wear headgear have won
Unibet Champion Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: STATE MAN (1st 2/5 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
- 35 of the last 41 won their last race
- 10 of the last 15 winners raced no more than 10 times over hurdles
- Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 15 and 9 in total
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (5 in total)
- 29 of the last 35 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)
- Horses unbeaten that season have good records (12 of last 14)
- The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 between them
- 11 of the last 16 winners from the Henderson or Willie Mullins stables
- The Irish – 16 of the last 26 runnings
- 16 of the last 26 winners won at the Festival in the past
- 27 of the last 40 winners placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
- The last 10 winners were unbeaten that season
- Horses that have raced at least once that calendar year do well
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times (4 of the last 8)
- 7 of the last 16 winners ran in the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)
- Mares are currently 4 from 10 over last 9 runnings
- 9 of the last 12 favourites have won
- Only 2 horses have regained the race since 1975
- International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 21 years)
- Horses that didn’t finish in the top three last time out have bad records
- 5 year-olds are only 2 from 113 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
- Only 2 of the last 18 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: LARK IN THE MORNIN (9/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – JJ Slevin
- 9 of the last 20 winners won their last race
- 10 of the last 14 winners came from the bottom half of the weights
- 11 of the last 20 raced in the last 25 days
- 11 of the last 20 winners raced exactly 3 times over hurdles
- French bred horses have done well
- 10 of the last 20 winners started off in France
- Fillies have a good overall record
- 13 of the last 20 winners carried 11st+ in weight
- Trainers David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot (4 of last 11), Joseph O’Brien (2 of the last 6) and Alan King-trained horses often do well
- 6 of the last 13 winners priced between 25/1 and 40/1 (7 of the last 13 priced 25/1+)
- 13 of the last 20 winners returned double-figure odds
- Horses wearing headgear have done well
- 14 of the last 20 winners rated between 124-134
- 8 of the last 17 winners British-trained
- Irish have won the last 7
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 15 runnings
- 15 of the last 20 winners won no more than once over hurdles
- Only 3 of the last 20 winners rated 135+
- Horses bred in Britain are 0-63 (last 15 years)
- Willie Mullins runners are currently 0 from 23 (just 4 placed in top 5 too)
- Willie Mullins is still to win the race
- Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle previously
- No winner had run at Cheltenham before
National Hunt Chase Trends
2024 Winner: CORBETTS CROSS 15/8
Trainer – Emmet Mullins
Jockey – Derek O’Connor
- 12 of the last 14 winners raced in a Graded Novice chase
- 13 of the last 23 placed 1st or 2nd in last race
- 14 of the last 19 winners aged 7 or 8 years-old (25 of the last 34)
- 10 of the last 15 winners raced 5+ times (fences)
- 10 of the last 14 winners Irish-trained
- 11 of the last 14 winners rated 145 (or more)
- 8 of the last 14 winners raced a Grade One Novice Chase that season
- 8 of the last 18 raced in a chase at Cheltenham previously that season
- 11 of the last 15 winners had run at a past Cheltenham Festival
- 11 of the last 14 winners returned a single-figure price
- Horses wearing headgear have done well (Corbetts Cross first-time hood in 2024)
- JP McManus-owned runners (7 winners)
- Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has won 6 (5-from-22)
- Jockey Derek O’Connor has 3 wins / 5 places (from 18 rides)
- Derek O’Connor & Patrick Mullins have won 7 of the last 14 (4 P Mullins, 3 O’Connor)
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings
- Trainer Gordon Elliott has 4 wins from just 14 runners
- 3 of the last 7 owned by Ronnie Bartlett
- 5 and 6 year-olds only 2 from 83 since 1989
- Favourites just 4 of the last 15 runnings
- Only 2 of the last 34 winners were aged 6 years-old
- Trainer Paul Nicholls is yet to win this race – currently 0 from 19
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won the race
- Horses with less than 3 chase starts have bad records
- Horses rated in the 130’s have a bad records (1 from 17)
- Only 2 winners in the last 16 returned bigger than 12/1
