The Cheltenham stats and trends that matter most to punters during the Festival relate to the Gold Cup. This year we could witness history as Galopin Des Champs goes for his third win in-a-row.
So, to help you find the winners on the final day, our statisticians return by popular demand with key Cheltenham trends for day 4 races.
How To Use Cheltenham Stats And Trends for Gold Cup Day
Here’s the caveat. Statistics alone cannot guarantee you Cheltenham winners, so we’re being honest with you right away. What they can do is help horse racing punters construct profiles of successful runners from the recent past.
If certain patterns emerge from the Festival, then there’s a good chance of history repeating itself. These Cheltenham trends on day 4 apply to the big handicap races, like the County Hurdle and Martin Pipe, as much as to graded action.
Gold Cup day contains three Grade 1s starting with the Triumph Hurdle and culminating in the blue riband. Add in the Festival Hunter Chase and Mares’ Chase, and there’s real variety in the Cheltenham horses on show.
That’s what we love about the Festival, though. Cheltenham stats and trends for Gold Cup day action also take different forms. Is a horse the right age? Do certain trainers and jockeys target particular races on the card?
Cheltenham trends for day 4 also look at recent form and racing weight. All of this helps you asses the final runners and highlight those with the best winning profiles.
For example, in the centrepiece Cheltenham Gold Cup, the big favourite on Cheltenham betting sites is Galopin Des Champs. He seeks a piece of horse racing immortality by bidding to become the first three-time winner of the race since Best Mate.
Galopin Des Champs also represents Willie Mullins. One of the key Cheltenham stats and trends this race is that his yard has won four of the last six editions.
The Gold Cup has also seen 18 of the last 24 winners having won their most recent race – another tick for Galopin Des Champs, who landed the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in early February.
Let’s get going with our day three Cheltenham trends for day 4
Cheltenham Stats And Trends For Day 4 Of The Festival
Triumph Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: MAJBOROUGH (6/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
- French-breds have filled 15 of the last 24 places (last 10 runnings)
- 15 of the last 20 from the top 4 in the betting
- 24 of the last 31 won their last race
- 9 of the last 16 unbeaten over hurdles
- Irish won 9 of the last 12 runnings
- 14 of the last 17 priced 13/2 or shorter
- Nicky Henderson (7 winners), Willie Mullins (5), Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs & Alan King-trained runners do well
- The Spring Juvenile Hurdle has been a good guide (each of last three winners won or placed in this Leopardstown race)
- 10 of the last 14 raced in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (8 of the last 13) last time
- 10 of the last 13 raced by Christmas time
- 8 of the last 10 started their careers in France
- Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners
- Gordon Elliott – 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 11 years
- Willie Mullins – 4 wins in the last 5 runnings (2 with Rich Ricci-owned horses)
- Be wary of horses that have won at 2m2f or further
- Be wary of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 16 runnings
- Last 8 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle winners (to have run in the race) have all lost (all unplaced too)
- Be cautious of horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
- Horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles have bad records
- Only 2 of the last 20 winner returned bigger than 12/1
County Handicap Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: ABSURDE (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
- 19 of the last 24 novices or second season hurdlers
- 15 of the last 19 rated in the 130s
- Irish have won 12 of the last 18 runnings
- 9 of the last 10 winners trained by Willie Mullins (5) or Dan Skelton (4)
- Willie Mullins – 7 of the last 15 runnings
- 9 of the last 17 returned 20/1 or bigger
- 8 of the last 16 had run in 6 or less hurdles races
- 14 of the last 19 were aged 5 or 6
- 12 of the last 26 aged 5
- 7 of the last 11 had run at Cheltenham before
- 12 of the last 18 Irish-trained
- 10 of the last 17 started their careers in France
- 15 of the last 19 were priced in double-figures
- 14 of the last 21 began their careers on the flat
- Look for Mullins, Skelton, Tony Martin & Nicholls-trained runners
- Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
- 10 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
- 12 of the last 24 came from the top 5 in the market
- 13 of the last 18 winners DIDN’T win their last race
- 5 of the last 9 hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
- Paul Nicholls is 4 from 33 (+14pts)
- Willie Mullins is 5 from 57 (+43.25pts)
- Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
- Previous course winners have a bad record
- Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
- Gordon Elliott has a bad record (0-from-25) since 2011
- Nicky Henderson has a bad record (0-36) this century
- Horses aged 9+ are 0-from 39 in last 17 runnings
- Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
- Take on runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
- Take on horses making their handicap debuts – but last 3 winners defied this stat
- Only 2 winning outright favourites in last 23
- Only 3 of the last 17 winners returned a single-figure price
- Since 1961, only 10 winners had run at the Festival before
- Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase Trends
2024 Winner: LIMERICK LACE (3/1)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
- Just 4 previous runnings
- Willie Mullins has a decent record in ‘mares only’ races at the Festival
- All 4 winners have been second-favourite
- Willie Mullins has trained 2 winners
- All 4 winners won their last race
- 3 of the 4 winners were owned by JP McManus
- All 4 winners aged 7-8
- 3 of the 4 winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival in the past
- 3 of the 4 winners rated 150+
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: STELLAR STORY (33/1)
Trainer – Gordan Elliott
Jockey – Sam Ewing
- 8 of the last 11 trained in Ireland
- 10 of the last 16 won at least twice over hurdles
- 10 of the last 14 won or been placed in a bumper
- 10 of the last 20 had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
- 17 of the last 20 contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
- 7 of the last 20 won the Hyde, Bristol or Classic that season
- 17 of the last 20 won or placed in a Graded Novice before
- 9 of the last 13 had won a Point-to-Point
- 9 of the last 20 from the top 5 in the market
- 10 of the last 20 ran 47 days (or more) ago
- 16 of the last 20 run in a race over 3m
- 17 of the last 19 aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 15 of the last 20 were 1st or 2nd last time out
- 17 of the last 20 finished in the top 3 last time out
- 13 of the last 20 had 4+ runs over hurdles
- 16 of the last 19 finished in the top 3 last time out
- 4 of the last 19 winning favourites
- Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
- Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 8 runnings
- Horses that ran in the last 23 days don’t have a good record
- Challow Hurdle winners have bad Festival record
- Be wary of horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd in their last race
- Avoid horses that raced less than 3 times over hurdles
- Nicky Henderson is 0-from-14 in the last 12 years
- 5 year-olds have a bad record (1 from 120)
- Only 4 of the last 19 winners didn’t race that calendar year
- Willie Mullins is 3 from 52, but has won 2 of the last 7
- Gordon Elliott is just 1-from-14
- Be cautious ex-flat horses (1 from 20)
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends
2024 Winner: GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (10/11 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
- 12 of the last 19 had run 9 or less times over fences
- 24 of the last 25 Grade 1 winners
- 20 of the last 25 ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
- 21 of the last 24 placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
- 20 of the last 25 were second or third season chasers
- Every winner since 2000 had one season hurdling
- 20 of the last 24 had won or placed at the Festival in the past
- 20 of the last 24 from the top 3 in the betting
- 22 of the last 25 raced no more than 12 times over fences
- 15 of the last 17 ran 3 or less times that season
- 17 of the last 28 bred in Ireland
- 18 of the last 24 won last time out
- 12 of the last 22 were favourites (55%)
- 14 of the last 20 yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
- ALL of the last 25 were aged 9 or younger
- 24 of the last 25 aged between 7-9 years-old
- 22 of the last 25 were in their first three seasons over fences
- Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a top record
- 5 of the last 14 ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
- Trainer Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
- Mullins and Henry De Bromhead have won the last 6 between them
- Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
- No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 77)
- Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
- Just one past winner for Gordon Elliott (Don Cossack)
- Horses rated 166 or less are just 6 from last 52
- Be cautious of horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
- Horses wearing headgear have a bad record
- Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t do well
- Just 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the Gold Cup
- No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase (Cheltenham)
- Just 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
- Only 2 of the last 17 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase Trends
2024 Winner: SINE NOMINE (8/1)
Trainer – Fiona Needham
Jockey – Mr J Dawson
- 30 of the last 34 aged under 11 years-old
- 28 of the last 39 won last time out
- 9 of the last 10 aged 10 or 11
- 20 of the last 22 Irish or French bred
- The last 18 winners were yet to win over this trip (rules)
- 8 of the last 15 finished in the top 5 in the race last year
- 10 of the last 16 from the first 4 in the betting
- 32 of the last 36 started out in Point-to-Point races
- 15 of the last 19 ran 34 days or less ago
- Respect the Irish runners (won 9 of last 14)
- 15 of the last 17 finished in the top 3 in their last race
- 11 of the last 15 rated 134 or higher (7 of last 12, rated 138+)
- 3 back-to-back winners in the last 13
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has 5 wins
- 14 of the last 19 aged 8-10
- 10 of the last 16 returned 8/1 or shorter
- Horses that ran in a handicap race that season have bad records
- Be wary of horses that had not won a race under rules
- Only 2 winners in the last 48 years aged 12 or older
- 30 of the last 39 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost, but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
- Just one 6 year-old winner in the last 37 runnings
- Just 2 winners aged 7 since 2000
- Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ at some point in their careers
- British bred runners are 1-90 (last 22 runnings) (Sine Nomine, 2024)
- Just 2 winners since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
- Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 271 since 1990
- Only 4 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 in their last race
- Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
2024 Winner: BETTER DAYS AHEAD (5/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Danny Gilligan
- 10 or the last 13 rated 138+
- 14 of the last 16 had 8 or less runs over hurdles
- 14 of the last 16 were second-season hurdlers
- 12 of the last 14 placed in the top 3 last time
- All of the last 16 carried 11-1 or more
- 3 of the last 7 had top-weight
- All 16 winners were aged 7 or younger
- 38 of the 40 win and place horses were first or second-season hurdlers
- Note Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
- 13 of the 16 placed in the top 4 last time out
- 8 of the 16 won last time out
- 7 of the last 11 were Irish-based Novices
- Irish have won 9 of the last 14 (7 handicap debuts)
- 7 of the last 11 had run over a longer trip that season
- 9 of the 16 were rated 133-139
- 9 of the 16 returned at a double-figure price (12 of the last 16 were 16/1 or less)
- 5 and 6 year-old have won 14 of last 16 runnings
- Willie Mullins is 4 from 27 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 14 runnings)
- Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
- Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 12 years
- Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 8
- Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 6
- Only 1 winning fav in the 16-year history (9-14 returned in double-figures)
- Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 85
- Just 4 winners have previous Festival experience
- Horses with 11st or less are 0-from-107 currently
- Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 10 of the last 12 between them
- Despite being named after his dad the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
- Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 71
