We are back with more horse racing stats and Cheltenham trends on day 2 of the Festival. You can use these statistics to thin out the fields when the final runners are out, so put history on your side.
How To Use The Cheltenham Trends for Day 2 of the Festival
It goes without saying that these stats aren’t the golden ticket to finding the winner in every race, but they can certainly assist in narrowing down your search. On Style Wednesday of the Cheltenham Festival, there are now more handicaps with larger fields than last year.
When looking back past Cheltenham winners, you begin to notice patterns. At least, our experts do at any rate. They produce certain profiles and types of horses that have done well in races before.
Here at CheltenhamBettingSites, we’re happy to share our thinking. If something has happened at the Festival before in the past regularly, them there’s a strong chance that history will repeat itself.
The Cheltenham trends on day 2 come in many different forms, including weight, trainers, form and age. Apply these stats to the final fields of Cheltenham horses for each race, and that eliminates some from contention.
We know that punters can easily find the most competitive events on the card a headache. By following what statistics say, the picture becomes clearer.
For example, in the feature Champion Chase, the big favourite on Cheltenham betting sites is Jonbon, who might even go off odds-on. However, one of the key Cheltenham trends for the day 2 main event remind us that SIX of the last seven horses to have been sent off odds-on have lost.
More than half of successful Champion Chasers this century (14/24) had previously won at the Festival . Again, this is an area where Jonbon falls down as he was only second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Arkle Novices’ Chase in the past.
Let’s get going with our day two Cheltenham Festival trends.
Turners Novices’ Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: BALLYBURN (1/2 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
- 24 of the last 30 won their last race
- 29 of the last 30 finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
- 18 of the last 20 from the top 4 in the market
- 7 of the last 11 unbeaten over hurdles
- 13 of the last 16 from the top two-rated on ratings
- 20 of the last 24 17/2 or shorter
- Irish have won 15 of the last 22 (10 of last 11)
- Horses rated 150+ have a good record
- 13 of the last 16 winners won a Graded Novice Hurdle
- 25 of the last 30 (including last 13) won at least one bumper race
- 18 of the last 19 aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 11 of the last 14 aged 6
- In the last 13 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 27 of the 39 top 3 places
- 24 of the last 26 were NH bred
- 1 of the last 26 won a graded race in the past
- Respect past Irish point-to-point winners (9 of the last 14 had won an Irish Point)
- Willie Mullins – 7 winners in last 17 years (5 of the last 11)
- Gordon Elliott – won 2 of the last 7 runnings
- Horses aged 7 or older are just 1 from 60 (since 1988)
- Just two of the last 38 winners came from outside the top 5 in the market
- The last 20 Challow Hurdle winners have all lost
- Only 2 winners aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – only winner since 1991
- Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have lost and 0 from 30 in the last 18 years)
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase Trends
2024 Winner: FACT TO FILE (8/13 fav)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Mark Walsh
- 13 of the last 19 won their last race
- 9 of the last 18 winning favourites
- Last 10 winners were rated 150+
- 6 of the last 16 ran in the Ladbrokes Novice Chase
- Last 23 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
- 17 of the last 18 finished 1st or 2nd in a G1/G2 over fences
- 26 of the last 30 had only one previous season over hurdles
- 7 year-olds – won 15 of the last 18 (20 of last 25)
- 12 of the last 13 returned single-figures in the betting
- 22 of the last 24 ran between 3-5 times over fences
- Every winner since 1997 had their first chase run the previous year
- Irish bred horses are 22 from the last 28
- 13 of the last 18 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
- 8 of the last 16 were trained in Ireland
- Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins (6 wins) and Paul Nicholls have good record (12 of the last 21 between them)
- 26 of the last 32 were novice hurdling last season
- 6 of the last 15 ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Note horses that ran that same calendar year (56 of the last 58 winners had)
- 13 of the last 18 winners had run at the Festival the previous year
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting market
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Only 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had 2 full seasons over hurdles
- Only 3 of the last 25 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
- No winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (formerly the Feltham at Kempton on Boxing Day) have won gone onto win this race
- French bred horses are 2-from-44 (last 17 years, but the 2022 winner L’Homme Presse and 2024 winner Fact TO File were French-breds)
- Mares are currently 0-from-12
- Horses in headgear don’t have a good record
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: LANGER DAN (13/2)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
- 15 of the last 25 aged 6 or 7
- 12 of the last 20 were second season hurdlers
- 18 of the last 24 raced less than 10 times over hurdles
- 12 of the last 15 had run at the Festival before (10 had top 4 finish)
- 11 of the last 15 came from the top 8 horses in the weights
- 11 of the last 15 DIDN’T win last time out
- 14 of the last 19 hailed form the top 7 in the betting
- 21 of the last 30 won earlier that season
- JP McManus-owned runners have done well
- Respect trainers Dan Skelton (last 2), Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (9 wins in last 15 years)
- 10 of the last 23 were French-Bred
- Respect Irish-trained runners (7 of the last 16)
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (14 of last 16 winners)
- 17 of the last 20 had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
- Gordon Elliott was won 3 of the last 14 runnings
- Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 11 (4 in total)
- 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have raced (win and place)
- 4 of the last 6 winners had headgear
- Only one winning favourite in the last 21 years (2020)
- Horses rated 150+ don’t do well overall – although the 2019 winner was rated 151 and 2020 winner was 152
- Willie Mullins won in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 53 runners – just two placed inside the top 2 (1 win Bleu Berry, 2018)
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 309 to even place since 1999
- Just 6 winners since 2000 aged 8+
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Trends
(Note: Race abandoned in 2024 and wll be run as a handicap in 2025)
2023 Winner: DELTA WORK (11/10 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
- 10 of the last 19 ran in the December Cross Country race at Cheltenham
- 15 of the last 19 had run on the course before
- Irish have won 16 of the last 19 runnings
- 16 of the last 19 returned 7/1 or shorter
- 22 of the last 26 came from the top three in the betting
- Respect jockey Keith Donoghue (4 wins)
- 15 or the last 19 were aged 10 or younger
- 8 of the last 13 were aged 8 or 9
- Philip Hobbs is 2 from 13 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
- Gordon Elliott has won 5 of the last 7 runnings
- 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
- 10 of the last 19 had run in the NH Chase before
- 6 of the last 9 owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
- Last 8 winners wore headgear
- 9 of the last 11 winners wore a tongue-tie
- Willie Mullins is 0 from 17
- Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record, but the 2022 winner Delta Work was running for the first time over the X-Country course
- Only 3 of the last 14 winners won their last race
- Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 101, but the 2020 winner was aged 6
Queen Mother Champion Chase Trends
2024 Winner: CAPTAIN GUINNESS (17/2)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
- Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 13
- 30 of the last 38 aged between 7-9
- 14 of the last 23 won last time out
- 13 of the last 24 ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 4 of the last 12 won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 25 of the last 40 had won at the Festival in the past
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 11 of the last 25 between them
- 14 of the last 19 had run in no more than 16 chases
- 19 of the last 22 had run that calendar year
- 41 of the last 43 returned 10/1 or shorter
- 17 of the last 25 returned 5/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 18 were French-bred
- 12 of the last 22 were second season chasers
- 17 of the last 19 had run 2 or 3 times that season
- 22 of the last 26 from the top 3 in the betting
- 18 of the last 25 ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
- 7 of the last 14 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
- Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 40 years
- Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 50 years
- Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 46 years is one of the key Cheltenham Festival trends
- 6 of the last 7 odds-on favourites have lost (last 9 years)
- Willie Mullins, has just 2 wins in the race (Energumene 2022 & 2023)
- Only 2 of the last 23 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- Be cautious of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
- Dublin Chase winners are 0-from-5 (Solness, 2025)
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase Trends
2024 Winner: UNEXPECTED PARTY (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
- 11 of the last 15 came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 12 of the last 16 novices or second season chasers
- 8 of the last 11 carried 11st or more
- 17 of the last 21 had run at the Festival before
- 8 of the last 21 ran in the previous years renewal
- Irish have won 5 of the last 12 runnings
- 12 of the last 19 aged between 6-8
- 14 of the last 21 were aged 8 or older
- Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses have fair records
- Paul Nicholls has won 4 of the last 21
- JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 12 placed)
- 13 of the last 14 were rated at least 138
- 5 year-olds have fair records (from few runners of that age that have run)
- Novices have won 6 of the last 16 runnings
- 5 of the last 10 won after a 91+ day break
- 11 of the last 14 were rated between 138-147
- 12 of the last 14 rated between 138-150
- 8 of the last 11 carried 11st or more in weight
- 21 of the last 25 had run no more than 12 times over fences
- Horses aged 10+ are only 3 wins from the last 29 runnings, but the 2022 winner was a 10 year-old
- Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 36 since 2005
- Just 2 of the last 20 winners were favourites
- Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in more than 12 chases
- Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a poor recent record
- Trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
- Last time out winners are just 1 from last 18
Weatherbys Champion Bumper Trends
2024 Winner: JASMIN DE VAUX (9/2)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Patrick Mullins
- Willie Mullins (13 winners) is one of the key Cheltenham Festival trends in this race
- The Irish lead the British 26-7 in the race history
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 8 runnings
- 21 of the last 32 aged 5 years-old
- 21 of the last 23 had their first run in Ireland
- 12 of the last 22 had been beaten in a race
- 6 of the last 15 returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- 30 of the last 32 won last time out (all of last 20)
- 25 of the last 32 trained in Ireland
- Respect Irish-trained runners (25 from 41)
- 23 of the last 32 from the top 6 in the betting
- 24 of the last 32 Irish-bred
- 13 of the last 24 second season horses
- 18 of the last 19 were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 13 of the last 22 came from the top 3 in the betting
- Mares are 3-22 in the last 20 runnings
- 7 of the last 9 had run in February
- 3 of the last 6 owned by Cheveley Park Stud
- Only 2 winners failed to win last time out
- Only 2 of the last 14 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
- Just 4 of the last 14 winners were won by UK-based trainers
- 4 year-olds are 1 from 69 since 2000 (Cue Card)
- Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
