As the best jumps horse racing fixture on the planet moves into St Patrick’s Thursday, we have the biggest Cheltenham trends for day 3 you need to know for the Festival.
Following these stats can help you narrow down the fields and find the best horse profiles based on past winners of each of the seven races on the penultimate day.
How To Use The Cheltenham Trends For Day 3 at the Festival
Applying the key trends blind certainly isn’t a get rich quick scheme for finding all the big winners. What it can do, however, is give you the knowledge of recent history, which in turn thins out 20+ horses in competitive handicaps that make up most of the Cheltenham schedule on St Patrick’s Thursday.
These Cheltenham trends for day 3 at the Festival can be applied to all the races, so you can learn plenty. Many horse racing punters feel they help more when looking back over previous Cheltenham winners for events like the Ryanair Chase or Festival Plate.
The latter is one of four handicaps on the card. Look out for the brand new Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase on St Patrick’s Thursday, plus the Pertemps Final over hurdle and Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup for amateur riders over fences.
By applying the below stats, it will help whittle down the Cheltenham horses for each race. Most of the time this results in a selection of runners that have the same (or similar) profile to a lot of the recent winners.
There are many different Cheltenham trends on day 3 to look out for. These include handicapping imperatives like weight carried, but also the age of the horses, their recent form, and trainers and jockeys.
For example, in the St Patrick’s Thursday feature race, the the Stayers’ Hurdle, the big favourite on Cheltenham betting sites is Teahupoo. He won the race last year, and the Festival stats say those who have scored before boast a fair record in a repeat bid.
Since 2002, the likes of Baracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s and Flooring Porter all took the prize at least twice.
Let’s get going with our Cheltenham trends for day 3.
Let’s get going with our day three Cheltenham trends for day 4
Dawn Run / Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: GOLDEN ACE (10/1)
Trainer – Jeremy Scott
Jockey – Lorcan Williams
- New race (Only 9 renewals)
- All 9 winners aged 5 or 6
- 6 of the last 9 trained in Ireland, but last 3 UK trained
- Favourites won 3 of the 9 runnings
- 6 of the last 9 won last time out
- 4 of the 9 French-bred
- 5 of the last 9 top or second top rated
- 5 of the last 9 priced 5/1 or shorter
- 5 of the last 9 started their careers in France
- 6 of the last 9 had run at least 4 times over hurdles
- 5 of the 9 unbeaten that season
- 4 of the 9 have been aged 5 years-old
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020
- Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 9 runnings
- Nicky Henderson is currently 0-from-12
- JP McManus owned are 0-from-10
- 7 year-olds or older are 0-from-24
- British trained runners are 3-from-61
Jack Richard Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase Trends
2020 Winner: IMPERIAL AURA (4/1 fav)
Trainer – Kim Bailey
Jockey – David Bass
- 12 of the last 16 aged 6 or 7
- 13 of the last 16 finished in the top 2 last time
- 10 of the last 16 single-figure price
- 8 of the last 14 previous bumper or point winners
- 50% of the last 8 ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase on Trials Day
- 10 of the last 11 rated 137+
- 9 of the last 16 had only won once over fences
- 7 of the last 9 carried 11st-7lbs or more
- Brian Hughes has a fine record (2 wins from just 5 rides)
- 9 of the last 10 priced 12/1 or shorter
- The last 10 winners carried 11st-2lbs or more
- Just 2 of the last 16 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
- Just 1 on the last 16 won more than two chase races
- Only 2 of the last 16 aged 8 or older
- Just 2 of the last 16 aged 5
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: MONMIRAL (25/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
- 13 of the last 14 rated 138 or higher
- Irish won the last 7 of last 9 runnings
- Last 13 aged 8 or younger
- 12 of the last 24 from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 13 of the last 18 rated between 132-142 (inc)
- 12 of the last 14 rated between 138-148
- 12 of the last 20 won over at least 2m7f
- 9 of the last 13 run 10 or less times over hurdles before
- 6 of the last 12 ran 7 or less times over hurdles
- 8 of the last 11 returned 12/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 24 won their last race
- 6 of the last 9 ran at Leopardstown last time out
- Look for trainers Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies and Pipe-trained runners
- JP McManus-owned horses do well – won it again in 2019 and 2020
- Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
- Horses with headgear do well (9 since 2000)
- 8 of the last 9 wore a tongue-tie
- 7 of the last 9 Irish-trained
- 6 of the last 9 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
- Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
- 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
- Only 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
- Just 2 winning favourites in last 19 years
- Paul Nicholls is 1 from 20 (One winner, One third and two 2nds in the last 11 runnings)
- Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 54
- Only 1 winner in the last 42 years aged 10+
- Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
Ryanair Chase Trends
2024 Winner: PROTEKTORAT (17/2)
Trainer – Harry Skelton
Jockey – Dan Skelton
- 13 of the last 17 had won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 16 of the 20 had won at Cheltenham before
- 7 of the last 12 were second season chasers
- All 17 recent winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
- 14 of the last 17 won or placed at the Festival before
- The King George VI Chase can be a good guide (8 from 31)
- The previous year’s renewal is a good guide
- 16 of the last 20 returned 13/2 or shorter
- 9 of the last 13 were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 16 of the last 17 were rated 161+
- Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 7
- 14 of last 20 were fav or second-fav
- 11 of the last 17 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 16 of the last 20 came from the top 3 in the betting
- 9 of the last 13 had 11 (or less) runs over fences
- Look for first time headgear (3 from 13)
- 11 of the last 17 winners DIDN’T win their last race
- Last 11 winners were French-bred
- All winners ran 5 or less times that season
- 5 of the last 9 winners trained by Willie Mullins
- Last 13 aged 9 or younger
- Irish have won 7 of the last 9 runnings
- Only one winner rated 160 or below
- Only 6 of the last 17 won last time out
- No winner was having their first run at the Festival
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- Just 1 of the last 15 winners aged 10
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle Trends
2024 Winner: TEAHUPOO (5/4 fav)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy
- 19 of the last 24 came from the top 4 in the betting
- 19 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
- 14 of the last 20 won their last race
- 7 of the last 11 were second season hurdlers
- 21 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 31 of the last 35 aged between 6-8 years-old
- 10 of the last 23 were French Bred
- The Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form should be respected
- 8 of the last 18 winners raced in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
- 20 of the last 25 finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
- 15 of the last 20 started 10/1 or less in the betting
- Past winners of the race has a fair record
- 18 of the last 28 had won 7 or less times over hurdles
- 3 of the last 7 ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
- A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
- Horses wearing headgear are 1 from 8
- Only 3 winners aged 9 in the last 35 runnings
- Horses aged 10 or older have just one win since1986 (1 from 70) – 2023 year’s winner Sire Du Berlais (11)
- Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
- Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
- The Irish are have won the race just 7 times since 1995 (but have won the last 4)
- Avoid horses that were beaten in the race in the past
Plate Handicap Chase Trends
2024 Winner: SHAKE UP’ARRY (8/1)
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Ben Jones
- Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
- The Pipe stable have won 7 of the last 27 runnings
- 18 of the last 24 returned at double-figure odds
- 28 of the last 37 were officially rated 140 or less
- 12 of the last 16 carried under 11-0
- Look out for French-bred horses
- 14 of the last 20 had run from 25 January onwards
- 11 of the last 21 had won a race in Feb or March
- 24 of the last 33 had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 13 were having Festival debut)
- 24 of the last 25 had run in no more than 16 chases
- 9 of the last 15 had 9 or less chase runs
- 19 of the last 25 came from outside the top 4 in the betting
- 7 of the last 9 were novices or second season chasers
- 19 of the last 21 had raced that calendar year
- Gigginstown House Stud horses have done well
- 6 of the last 9 won last time out
- The last 6 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
- Avoid horses that are still to win at Class 3 or better
- Irish have only had 5 winners since 1982, but all came since 2016
- Willie Mullins is still to win the race
- Only 3 winners older than 9 in the last 12 years
- Just 2 of the last 21 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
- Just 4 of the last 21 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
- Only 4 winning favourites in the last 19 years
- Just 6 of last 30 winners won with 11st+
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase Trends
2024 Winner: INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN (13/8 fav)
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor
- Horse aged 7-9 (but last year’s winner 6) do well
- 10 of the last 15 priced 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
- 10 of the last 15 carried 11st 5lbs+
- 12 of the last 17 didn’t win earlier that season
- 11 of the last 17 ran off a mark of 137 or more
- 10 of the last 13 rated between 137-143
- 12 of the last 16 ran in February
- Note Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
- Note horses in the top half of the handicap
- 20 of the last 25 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
- Note non-claiming amateur riders
- 8 of the last 14 wore headgear in one of the key Cheltenham trends here
- 13 of the last 16 came from the top 6 in the market
- Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019 and 2024
- Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (4 of the last 13)
- 20 of the last 22 DIDN’T win last time out
- Only 7 Irish winners in last 41 years (but have won 7 of the last 11)
- Horses that fell or unseated that season have a bad record
- Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
- Willie Mullins has a bad record in the race (never won it)
- Only 2 of the last 20 winners aged 10+
- Claiming jockeys – 3 from 114 since 2009
- Only 2 of the last 22 winners won last time out
- Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
- French breds are 1 from 88 since 2005
