{"id":45951,"date":"2025-03-11T10:48:49","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T10:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cheltenhambettingsites.co.uk\/?p=45951"},"modified":"2025-03-11T13:07:36","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T13:07:36","slug":"2025-cheltenham-festival-trends-day-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cheltenhambettingsites.co.uk\/blog\/2025-cheltenham-festival-trends-day-1\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Cheltenham Festival Trends for Day 1 – Including Key Stats For Champion Hurdle"},"content":{"rendered":"\"Cheltenham\n

If you like your horse racing stats, then here at CheltenhamBettingSites we’ve got you covered with the key 2025 Cheltenham Festival trends for day 1 that will help you put history on your side. Our experts construct the best profiles based on past winners of each of the seven races on Champion Hurdle day.<\/strong><\/p>\n

How To Use The Cheltenham Festival Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Horse racing trends are certainly not the holy grail to finding every winner at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, but they can help narrow down your search – especially in the big handicaps.<\/p>\n

By looking at past Cheltenham winners<\/a>, trends and patterns emerge from recent years. These suggest that if something has happened a lot of times in a horse race, there’s a strong chance that history will repeat itself.<\/p>\n

These Cheltenham Festival trends<\/strong> come in all shapes and sizes, so you must be selective too. Including the best ages, weight, trainers and recent form – to name just a handful.<\/p>\n

However, by applying them to the final Cheltenham horses<\/a> for each race will allow you to quickly put a line through some that fall down on the main Cheltenham Festival trends – and add those that tick more boxes to your best bets shortlists.<\/p>\n

For example – in the opening day feature race – the Champion Hurdle<\/strong> – a massive 86% of the last 14 winners (12) came into the race unbeaten that season. While 30 of the last 35 winners (86% again) also won their most recent race.<\/p>\n

These are two big trends you should know about Willie Mullins star mare Lossiemouth. Before taking a punt on her on Cheltenham betting sites<\/a>, she must defy the following stats if she heads to the Champion Hurdle over the Mares’ Hurdle on day one.<\/p>\n

As she was beaten into second in the Christmas Hurdle back in December and more recently fell in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown.<\/p>\n

Let’s get going with our Cheltenham Festival trends for day 1<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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  • <\/svg> Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 2<\/a><\/li>\n
  • <\/svg> Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 3<\/a><\/li>\n
  • <\/svg> Cheltenham Festival Trends Day 4<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

    Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    2024 Winner: Slade Steel
    \nTrainer \u2013 Henry De Bromhead
    \nJockey \u2013 Rachael Blackmore\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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      \n
    • <\/svg> 22 of the last 30 winners raced in the last 45 days<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> The Irish have won 19 of the last 33<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 24 of the last 28 won their last race<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 14 of the last 21 winners ran in at least 4 hurdles races<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 13 of the last 15 winners hailed from the top 4 in the market<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 12 of the last 13 winners won a graded Novice Hurdle<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 5 & 6 year-olds have done best \u2013 winning 18 of the last 20<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> Trainer Willie Mullins has won the race 7 times (5 of the last 12 years)<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 8 of the last 12 winners – (5) Mullins or (3) Henderson-trained<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 27 of the last 30 winners ran that same calendar year<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 6 of the last 11 winners had been rated 153 or more<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> Only 2 of the last 22 winners aged 7 or older<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> Only 2 outright winning favourites in the last 20 years<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> Since 1992 all horses (40) wearing head-gear have been beaten<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 11 of the last 12 winners returned a single-figure price<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> 11 of the last 16 winners were previous bumper winners<\/li>\n
    • <\/svg> Only 4 of the last 22 winners were unbeaten<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

      Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices\u2019 Chase Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      2024 Winner: GAELIC WARRIOR (2\/1 fav)
      \nTrainer \u2013 Willie Mullins
      \nJockey \u2013 Paul Townend\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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      • <\/svg> 15 of the last 19 winners won at least twice over fences in the past<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 16 of the last 18 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 15 of the last 20 winners won (or been placed) at Cheltenham in the past<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 19 of the last 25 winners won a Grade 1 or 2 chase previously<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 14 of the last 15 winners won their last race (18 of the last 23)<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 23 of the last 25 winners\u00a0 9\/1 or shorter<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 16 of the last 22 winners raced 3 or 4 times over fences<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 15 of the last 21 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 9 of the last 13 winners unbeaten over fences<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> Trainer Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 10 runnings<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 10 of the last 13 winners trained by either Willie Mullins (6) or Nicky Henderson (4)<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 35 of the last 38 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 31 of the last 34 winners priced 10\/1 or shorter in the betting<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> Only 2 winners won with headgear since 2000<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 5 year-olds are 0-16 since 2007<\/li>\n
      • <\/svg> 10 of the last 13 favourites won<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

        Ultima Handicap Chase Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n

        2024 Winner: CHIANTI CLASSICO
        \nTrainer \u2013 Kim Bailey
        \nJockey \u2013 David Bass
        \n<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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        • <\/svg> 10 of the last 17 rated between 142-146 (8 between 142-145)<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 19 of the last 25 winners rated 143 or less<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 17 of the last 24 top 4 in the betting<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 20 of the last 24 returned 11\/1 or shorter<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 18 of the last 24 novices or second season chasers<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Horses rated 140+ won 16 of the last 24 runnings<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 9 of the last 22 won their last race<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Horses that ran well in the race before have a good record<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 10 of the last 13 winners wore headgear<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 10 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham that season<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Jonjo O\u2019Neill, Lucinda Russell, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe have good records<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 5 of the last 11 winners ran in the Coral Gold Cup (Hennessy) that season<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> 13 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Northern-based runners have done well<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Horses carrying 11st 4lb or more in weight don’t fare well \u2013 12 of the last 20 carried 10st 12lb or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11st 12lb & the 2019 winner won with 11st 8lb and Chianti Classico in 2024 carried 11st 4lb)<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Horses aged 11 or older only 3 from 58 to get placed<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Just 5 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11\/1<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> The Irish have a bad record – 2 of the last 56 runnings (since 1967)<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Irish-trained runners are 0-46 in the last 18 runnings<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Trainer Willie Mullins has never won this race<\/li>\n
        • <\/svg> Be cautious of Paul Nicholls runners\u2013 he\u2019s currently 0 from 25<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

          Mares’ Hurdle Trends
          \n<\/strong><\/h2>\n

          2024 Winner: LOSSIEMOUTH
          \nTrainer \u2013 Willie Mullins
          \nJockey \u2013 Paul Townend \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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          • <\/svg> Irish-trained mares (14 of last 17)<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Favourites or 2nd<\/sup> favs won 13 of the last 17 runnings<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Novices have a good record<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 12 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 10 of the last 17 favourites (but only 2 in last 10)<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 13 of the last 17 winners were aged between 5-7 years-old<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 15 of the last 17 winners won over at least 2m4f<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Trainer Willie Mullins 10 of the last 17 winners<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 6 of the last 13 winners had won over 2m6f+<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Horses that began their careers in bumpers have good records<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Respect French-bred mares \u2013 won 10 times<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 13 of the last 17 winners priced 6\/1 or shorter<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Benie De Deaux the only ex-flat horse to win the race<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Only 2 winners aged 8+ (Quevega & Honeysuckle)<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> 14 of the last 17 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the male<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> British-bred mares are currently 3-90<\/li>\n
          • <\/svg> Only one winner from last 33 runners to wear headgear have won<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

            Unibet Champion Hurdle Trends<\/strong><\/h2>\n

            2024 Winner: STATE MAN (1st<\/sup> 2\/5 fav)
            \nTrainer \u2013 Willie Mullins
            \nJockey \u2013 Paul Townend
            \n<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

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              \n
            • <\/svg> 35 of the last 41 won their last race<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 10 of the last 15 winners raced no more than 10 times over hurdles<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Owner JP McManus has won 6 of the last 15 and 9 in total<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 13 runnings (5 in total)<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 29 of the last 35 winners aged 6 or 7 years-old (12 of last 17)<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Horses unbeaten that season have good records (12 of last 14)<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 22 of the last 26 between them<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 11 of the last 16 winners from the Henderson or Willie Mullins stables<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> The Irish – 16 of the last 26 runnings<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 16 of the last 26 winners won at the Festival in the past<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 27 of the last 40 winners placed in the first 4 at the previous season\u2019s festival<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> The last 10 winners were unbeaten that season<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Horses that have raced at least once that calendar year do well<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 9 times (4 of the last 8)<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 7 of the last 16 winners ran in the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Mares are currently 4 from 10 over last 9 runnings<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 9 of the last 12 favourites have won<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Only 2 horses have regained the race since 1975<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> International Hurdle winners are 0-from-13 (last 21 years)<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Horses that didn’t finish in the top three last time out have bad records<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> 5 year-olds are only 2 from 113 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old<\/li>\n
            • <\/svg> Only 2 of the last 18 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n